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Monday 16 May 2011

Waiting for the hammer to fall

We're heading into the final weekend of the season and it couldn't be tighter at the bottom.

West Ham United, managerless for the moment after parting company with Avram Grant, have already been relegated to the doom and gloom of the Championship after a six year stay in the top flight of English football but we couldn't have expected a last day where no less than FIVE teams could join them in the second tier of English football.



This time the last day relegation scenario doesn't involve Newcastle, a day which saw Alan Shearer's side relegated two seasons ago.

Credit: here




Instead, it's between Wigan, Blackpool, Birmingham, Wolves and Blackburn Rovers on the last day to determine who will be travelling to the likes of Hull, Southampton and Brighton next season in the Championship.

It could be argued that, with another point on the board, both Wolves and Blackburn (40pts) will both end Sunday's face off having avoided relegation, but a defeat for either side could see them looming close to the dreaded trap door. A victor in that game would be guaranteed another season in the top flight.

The real business, instead, comes between the other three teams, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan, who are all on 39 points, with only a tally of two separating them on goal difference.

That means that ahead of games to Tottenham, Manchester United and Stoke respectively, a point could be enough to save one side's heads.

The reality is that, if one of those three teams wins, either Wolves or Blackburn will be overtaken no matter of the result at Molineux on Sunday.

However, three draws in games involving Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would see no chance in the table as it stands, with Wigan dropping out in 19th and Blackpool in 18th, one goal behind Birmingham.

That, in itself, would be dependent on Wolves not being beaten by two clear goals at home to Blackburn. A 2-0 home defeat for Wolves, and draws at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and the Britannia Stadium would see Blackpool escape the drop zone on goals scored, with the same goal difference as Mick McCarthy's side. A remarkable defeat would be the only way Blackburn would be relegated if the sides below them and Wolves can only draw. A 7 goal swing would be needed.

Then, we come down to the scenario that Wigan have to better both Birmingham and Blackpool's results to save themselves.

It's interesting that all three sides on 39 points are away on the last day and the goal difference scenario is one you can't take your eyes off.

Wigan currently sit bottom of the goal difference chart on -22 goals, while Blackpool are one better off and Birmingham are one more better off than the Seasiders'.

The strange fact is that Wigan, questionably, have the game where if they are to lose, it's going to be a respectable defeat, whereas Blackpool and Birmingham could face thrashings at the Champions, even if a second string is deployed by Sir Alex, and Spurs, who need a win to seal their league position of 5th after beating Liverpool 2-0.

So who will stay up and why?



TOTTENHAM v BIRMINGHAM CITY

Credit; here






Just looking at Birmingham's record against Spurs would give their fans resounding hope, in the first of three games live on Sky.

A 1-1 draw earlier in the season, after a Craig Gardner goal, came before their form dipped after their Carling Cup Final win over Arsenal.

I watched the game at home to Fulham on Sunday along with the West Ham game at Wigan and couldn't believe that the Blues' defense just fell apart, given their generally good defensive record. Ok, they were missing the suspended Liam Ridgewell but it could have easily been worse than 2-0 had it not been for Ben Foster (how many times have we said that this season?)

Despite accumulating draws over the years against Spurs, their only Premier League win at White Hart Lane came on 2nd December 2007, when Seb Larsson scored a last minute winner to secure a 3-2 win.

More of the same will be needed on Sunday and I'm sure that Alex McLeish will send his side out fighting from the off, something they haven't done of late, and their fate is in their hands, at the moment.



Birmingham will have to take advantage of any mistakes from Tottenham if they are to have any chance of getting the result they will need.

Credit; here

On the contrary, Spurs have to win to secure 5th place ahead of Liverpool and van der Vaart's goal at weekend tends to make you think that he's back on form behind Jermaine Defoe, who has been hit and miss all season.

But after 4 draws in their last 5 home league games, Harry will be looking for his side to finish all guns blazing and I would bank on there to be goals for Spurs, if they can take advantage of the width they have used all season. A 3-0 defeat will make it especially nervy for Birmingham, and they might need to score to stand a chance of survival. The pressure might well drift through, especially if results are going against them.

There certainly aren't many goals in the Midlands' side, but they'll do especially well to keep Tottenham out at home in front of their own fans for the last time this season.

It will depend on other results.





MANCHESTER UNITED v BLACKPOOL

Credit; here





That brings Blackpool into play with,arguably, the trickiest game of all, away at the Champions, who will be picking up the Premier League trophy on the day, in a game which is live on Sky.

This could go two ways; United could play a Reserve team with next weekend's Champions League Final against Barcelona in mind, or they could play some of the first eleven, given the trophy celebrations afterwards.

I expect that van der Sar will be returning in goal for his last game at Old Trafford and a defensive featuring Rafael, Smalling, Evans and Evra could be a tricky one to breach for a Blackpool side who are definitely capable of goals.

I could see the likes of Giggs, Park, Hernandez and Rooney all being rested, but every United team has goals in it and Sir Alex would never dis-respect other teams around the relegation zone on the last day by playing a team that wasn't built to win.



Blackpool gave United a real scare at Bloomfield Road and will looking to spoil the day the Reds' party day.

Credit; here


Blackpool, in themselves, deserve the right to have a chance of avoiding the drop on the last day.

Victories against the likes of Spurs and Wigan (4-0) and Liverpool (2-1) should not be forgotten and they have gone to the likes of the Stadium of Light and won by taking their chances.

It would be some story if they could go to Old Trafford, the games which supporters were eagerly anticipating when the fixture list came out, and win to secure their Premier League status, something which would be a credit to the players, the fans and Ian Holloway for their belief.

In a different way to Birmingham, I do believe that Blackpool have to go for it at Old Trafford and they have to take their chances, as they did against Bolton at the weekend.

It might be a case of 'can we score more than you?' but the Oranges' boss will take it hands down.



The message from Blackpool fans is clear, but they have their own challenge at Old Trafford.

Credit; here


They've got nothing to lose Blackpool, who have come a long way from their 4-0 win at Wigan on the opening day, despite patchy form in the middle period of the season and it would be in the interest of the top flight that they stay in the top tier and keep the likes of Charlie Adam.

United might have one eye on the final and one single goal in a 2-1 defeat will see them leapfrog Birmingham. A 1 goal swing would also be enough, given Blackpool's superior scoring tally.





STOKE v WIGAN

Credit: here





That boils down to Wigan, who, if Blackpool lose by only one goal, would have to pick up points at Stoke, live on Sky.

A 2 goal defeat for Blackpool at United and a 1 goal defeat for Wigan at Stoke would also see Wigan down on goals scored, with Blackpool having scored 14 more than the Lancashire outfit.

Stoke's home record is generally good and, after the disappointment of the final, the players will hope to end a good season on a high, with a top 8 finish not out of the question.



Manuel Figueroa scored a memorable goal at Stoke last season and a 2-1 lead heading into the last 15 minutes could be priceless this time.

Credit; here



It would be a suitable position for the excellent football Stoke have played under Tony Pulis this season.

Despite this, Wigan have only lost once to Stoke in the last nine meetings, a 2-0 defeat at the Britannia in 08/09. Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie scored that day, but the last three have ended as score draws, something which may be enough for Wigan.

They needed a miraculous comeback at home to West Ham on Sunday to stay in the league although they can expect Stoke's defense and goalkeeper to be more solid this time around.

As Roberto Martinez said, it's certainly the second of two cup finals for the Pie eaters, who, judging by predictions, will need a result to stay in the league.

It's time to see what Wigan are made of, but they can't remain a one man team forever and you'd imagine someone will finally move for Charles N'Zogbia in the summer, no matter of Wigan's league situation.



Can N'Zogbia save Wigan and can their fans bare to watch?

Credit; here



It was his two goals who kept Wigan in it on Sunday and the likes of Hugo Rodalega, who has only scored once in his last eleven games for Wigan, will have to perform.

If they can go to Stoke and get under their collar, they might be able to nick the decisive early goal that could see them stay up.

On the contrary, West Ham had so many wasted chances, at times cutting through the Wigan defense and, if this happens again on Sunday, then the likes of Kenwyne Jones and Jonathan Walters will take their chances, as they have done all season.

No doubt Wigan will be working on set pieces ahead of the game after awful defending from set pieces against West Ham and playing even one aerially poor defender could cost them the point that they need at a stadium where the Stoke fans would really get behind their team.

Because of that, I could see Stoke scoring a few, and Wigan could be on the wrong end of a 3-2 loss, one that would send them down, but this is the game that could stop heartbeats of fans at both Birmingham and Blackpool throughout the day.

Interestingly, Wigan are offering supporters into the DW stadium for free to watch the game after they pre-ordered too few away tickets for the last game.

Three defeats would mean that Blackburn and Wolves would both be safe but most people will go into that game not knowing what to expect from either side.

It's been a long time since Wolves won three on the bounce and Blackburn themselves are three games unbeaten, so you'd predict that this would be a draw, ensuring that only a win from Wigan, Blackpool or Birmingham would send Wolves down. It could cue a mass pitch invasion in the Black Country but they've worked hard to be in this position and a 1-1 draw will see them safe.

Get set for a huge weekend in Premier League football, I sure am ready.