Promotion From the Championship - May 2012

This Championship season has been chaotic as ever, Craig Bellamy moving to Cardiff on loan, despite their money problems, QPR, under Neil Warnock, rising to the top of the pile despite irregularities over the Alejandro Faurlin transfer, and Sheffield Wednesday, only four years after their relegation from the top flight, being doomed to League One football next season.

Enough of the past, what can we expect from the Championship this season and can we answer the biggest question of all, who will gain promotion to the highest flight of English football with a successful season.

After browsing the internet yesterday, I found that Leicester City had been installed as favourites to win the league this year.

Back in December of last year, after an awful start to the season, and a change of manager, I identified the Foxes as being unlikely promotion candidates, with Yakubu and Darius Vassell forming a somewhat formidable partnership up front.



Yakubu scored 12 goals in a successful loan spell and Sven Goran Eriksson will no doubt be hoping he can persuade the Nigerian international to return to the club next season as first choice striker.

They didn't quite make it on that occasion, but Sven will be at the helm from the off this time and they seem sure to spend over the summer months. If they can avoid an awful start which saw them take only two points from their first five games, then they can be pushing for another promotion, following their relegation from the second tier of English football in 2007/08. The players might have been saying that promotion is a must this time around, but I can't see them having anywhere neaar enough to win it, but surely they seem destined for the play off's at least this time around.

Of course, elsewhere, lie Cardiff City, managerless at this moment in time after Dave Jones was sacked, ruthlessly in my opinion.

They won't have a Welsh derby next season after Swansea were promoted to the top flight, but they might have again considered themselves unfortunate to have missed out on a prized slot in the top flight this time around.

Heartache again at the play off stage, screams out one thing, the Bluebirds must be promoted automatically if they are to play in the Premier League. That was summed up perfectly by their capitulation in the second leg against Reading when well placed to progress to the final.






It was more hands on head's for Cardiff fans and players this season.





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They had the players last season to get them to the promised land, but I couldn't help notice thye have just sold Michael Chopra to Ipswich this week. Jay Bothroyd might have been in form at times this season but I still considered Chopra to be their best, most consistant, striker, with no guarantee that Craig Bellamy will return again next season.

It will be interesting to see who comes in as the new manager, presumably it will be someone with high ambitions, but they aren't going to have lots of money to spend and they might have to make do with the current crop and loanees, somewhere where Dave Jones was particularly successful. There might be high hopes but I can see them flopping next year and ending up mid table.

Managerial Changes

Dave Jones hasn't been the only managerial casualty after poor, or unsuccessful, seasons.

Two out of three of the relegated teams from the Premier League, West Ham and Birmingham (although that is an on-goig issue) have opted for a fresh approach, with West Ham going for the tried and tested formula of Sam Allardyce.

Out of the game since December, Big Sam was sacked by Blackburn Rovers' new owners, but now he has been given a chance to re-shape a team and attempt to get them back into the top flight at the first attempt.

West Ham might not be favorites to win the Championship, but they are my tip because I can see Allardyce getting West Ham to be a disciplined side from the start and he will sure them up defensively, something which surely was the main reason behind last season's gloom.

Nobody is expecting Scott Parker to stay, but Big Sam's track record with signing players is good and they might still keep enough quality to be too good for many-a-team in the Championship.



Big Sam will be hoping to guide West Ham back up to the promised land.



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They will be, by far, better placed come May than this season's other relegated teams.

Birmingham are set to lose several of their top players to Premier League clubs and they might need a season to stabilise, like Blackpool, before they try another push for the big time.

Away from them, another big question is: how will the promoted sides from League One get on?

You would presume that Peterborough might struggle more than Southampton and Brighton, although the latter two, given a good run, could both be pushing for the play off's close season.

Whatever happens, I'm sure that it will be another memorable season.

Predictions:

1) West Ham United
2) Southampton
3) Leicester City
4) Reading
5) Burnley
6) Leeds

Waiting for the hammer to fall

We're heading into the final weekend of the season and it couldn't be tighter at the bottom.

West Ham United, managerless for the moment after parting company with Avram Grant, have already been relegated to the doom and gloom of the Championship after a six year stay in the top flight of English football but we couldn't have expected a last day where no less than FIVE teams could join them in the second tier of English football.



This time the last day relegation scenario doesn't involve Newcastle, a day which saw Alan Shearer's side relegated two seasons ago.

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Instead, it's between Wigan, Blackpool, Birmingham, Wolves and Blackburn Rovers on the last day to determine who will be travelling to the likes of Hull, Southampton and Brighton next season in the Championship.

It could be argued that, with another point on the board, both Wolves and Blackburn (40pts) will both end Sunday's face off having avoided relegation, but a defeat for either side could see them looming close to the dreaded trap door. A victor in that game would be guaranteed another season in the top flight.

The real business, instead, comes between the other three teams, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan, who are all on 39 points, with only a tally of two separating them on goal difference.

That means that ahead of games to Tottenham, Manchester United and Stoke respectively, a point could be enough to save one side's heads.

The reality is that, if one of those three teams wins, either Wolves or Blackburn will be overtaken no matter of the result at Molineux on Sunday.

However, three draws in games involving Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would see no chance in the table as it stands, with Wigan dropping out in 19th and Blackpool in 18th, one goal behind Birmingham.

That, in itself, would be dependent on Wolves not being beaten by two clear goals at home to Blackburn. A 2-0 home defeat for Wolves, and draws at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and the Britannia Stadium would see Blackpool escape the drop zone on goals scored, with the same goal difference as Mick McCarthy's side. A remarkable defeat would be the only way Blackburn would be relegated if the sides below them and Wolves can only draw. A 7 goal swing would be needed.

Then, we come down to the scenario that Wigan have to better both Birmingham and Blackpool's results to save themselves.

It's interesting that all three sides on 39 points are away on the last day and the goal difference scenario is one you can't take your eyes off.

Wigan currently sit bottom of the goal difference chart on -22 goals, while Blackpool are one better off and Birmingham are one more better off than the Seasiders'.

The strange fact is that Wigan, questionably, have the game where if they are to lose, it's going to be a respectable defeat, whereas Blackpool and Birmingham could face thrashings at the Champions, even if a second string is deployed by Sir Alex, and Spurs, who need a win to seal their league position of 5th after beating Liverpool 2-0.

So who will stay up and why?



TOTTENHAM v BIRMINGHAM CITY

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Just looking at Birmingham's record against Spurs would give their fans resounding hope, in the first of three games live on Sky.

A 1-1 draw earlier in the season, after a Craig Gardner goal, came before their form dipped after their Carling Cup Final win over Arsenal.

I watched the game at home to Fulham on Sunday along with the West Ham game at Wigan and couldn't believe that the Blues' defense just fell apart, given their generally good defensive record. Ok, they were missing the suspended Liam Ridgewell but it could have easily been worse than 2-0 had it not been for Ben Foster (how many times have we said that this season?)

Despite accumulating draws over the years against Spurs, their only Premier League win at White Hart Lane came on 2nd December 2007, when Seb Larsson scored a last minute winner to secure a 3-2 win.

More of the same will be needed on Sunday and I'm sure that Alex McLeish will send his side out fighting from the off, something they haven't done of late, and their fate is in their hands, at the moment.



Birmingham will have to take advantage of any mistakes from Tottenham if they are to have any chance of getting the result they will need.

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On the contrary, Spurs have to win to secure 5th place ahead of Liverpool and van der Vaart's goal at weekend tends to make you think that he's back on form behind Jermaine Defoe, who has been hit and miss all season.

But after 4 draws in their last 5 home league games, Harry will be looking for his side to finish all guns blazing and I would bank on there to be goals for Spurs, if they can take advantage of the width they have used all season. A 3-0 defeat will make it especially nervy for Birmingham, and they might need to score to stand a chance of survival. The pressure might well drift through, especially if results are going against them.

There certainly aren't many goals in the Midlands' side, but they'll do especially well to keep Tottenham out at home in front of their own fans for the last time this season.

It will depend on other results.





MANCHESTER UNITED v BLACKPOOL

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That brings Blackpool into play with,arguably, the trickiest game of all, away at the Champions, who will be picking up the Premier League trophy on the day, in a game which is live on Sky.

This could go two ways; United could play a Reserve team with next weekend's Champions League Final against Barcelona in mind, or they could play some of the first eleven, given the trophy celebrations afterwards.

I expect that van der Sar will be returning in goal for his last game at Old Trafford and a defensive featuring Rafael, Smalling, Evans and Evra could be a tricky one to breach for a Blackpool side who are definitely capable of goals.

I could see the likes of Giggs, Park, Hernandez and Rooney all being rested, but every United team has goals in it and Sir Alex would never dis-respect other teams around the relegation zone on the last day by playing a team that wasn't built to win.



Blackpool gave United a real scare at Bloomfield Road and will looking to spoil the day the Reds' party day.

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Blackpool, in themselves, deserve the right to have a chance of avoiding the drop on the last day.

Victories against the likes of Spurs and Wigan (4-0) and Liverpool (2-1) should not be forgotten and they have gone to the likes of the Stadium of Light and won by taking their chances.

It would be some story if they could go to Old Trafford, the games which supporters were eagerly anticipating when the fixture list came out, and win to secure their Premier League status, something which would be a credit to the players, the fans and Ian Holloway for their belief.

In a different way to Birmingham, I do believe that Blackpool have to go for it at Old Trafford and they have to take their chances, as they did against Bolton at the weekend.

It might be a case of 'can we score more than you?' but the Oranges' boss will take it hands down.



The message from Blackpool fans is clear, but they have their own challenge at Old Trafford.

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They've got nothing to lose Blackpool, who have come a long way from their 4-0 win at Wigan on the opening day, despite patchy form in the middle period of the season and it would be in the interest of the top flight that they stay in the top tier and keep the likes of Charlie Adam.

United might have one eye on the final and one single goal in a 2-1 defeat will see them leapfrog Birmingham. A 1 goal swing would also be enough, given Blackpool's superior scoring tally.





STOKE v WIGAN

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That boils down to Wigan, who, if Blackpool lose by only one goal, would have to pick up points at Stoke, live on Sky.

A 2 goal defeat for Blackpool at United and a 1 goal defeat for Wigan at Stoke would also see Wigan down on goals scored, with Blackpool having scored 14 more than the Lancashire outfit.

Stoke's home record is generally good and, after the disappointment of the final, the players will hope to end a good season on a high, with a top 8 finish not out of the question.



Manuel Figueroa scored a memorable goal at Stoke last season and a 2-1 lead heading into the last 15 minutes could be priceless this time.

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It would be a suitable position for the excellent football Stoke have played under Tony Pulis this season.

Despite this, Wigan have only lost once to Stoke in the last nine meetings, a 2-0 defeat at the Britannia in 08/09. Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie scored that day, but the last three have ended as score draws, something which may be enough for Wigan.

They needed a miraculous comeback at home to West Ham on Sunday to stay in the league although they can expect Stoke's defense and goalkeeper to be more solid this time around.

As Roberto Martinez said, it's certainly the second of two cup finals for the Pie eaters, who, judging by predictions, will need a result to stay in the league.

It's time to see what Wigan are made of, but they can't remain a one man team forever and you'd imagine someone will finally move for Charles N'Zogbia in the summer, no matter of Wigan's league situation.



Can N'Zogbia save Wigan and can their fans bare to watch?

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It was his two goals who kept Wigan in it on Sunday and the likes of Hugo Rodalega, who has only scored once in his last eleven games for Wigan, will have to perform.

If they can go to Stoke and get under their collar, they might be able to nick the decisive early goal that could see them stay up.

On the contrary, West Ham had so many wasted chances, at times cutting through the Wigan defense and, if this happens again on Sunday, then the likes of Kenwyne Jones and Jonathan Walters will take their chances, as they have done all season.

No doubt Wigan will be working on set pieces ahead of the game after awful defending from set pieces against West Ham and playing even one aerially poor defender could cost them the point that they need at a stadium where the Stoke fans would really get behind their team.

Because of that, I could see Stoke scoring a few, and Wigan could be on the wrong end of a 3-2 loss, one that would send them down, but this is the game that could stop heartbeats of fans at both Birmingham and Blackpool throughout the day.

Interestingly, Wigan are offering supporters into the DW stadium for free to watch the game after they pre-ordered too few away tickets for the last game.

Three defeats would mean that Blackburn and Wolves would both be safe but most people will go into that game not knowing what to expect from either side.

It's been a long time since Wolves won three on the bounce and Blackburn themselves are three games unbeaten, so you'd predict that this would be a draw, ensuring that only a win from Wigan, Blackpool or Birmingham would send Wolves down. It could cue a mass pitch invasion in the Black Country but they've worked hard to be in this position and a 1-1 draw will see them safe.

Get set for a huge weekend in Premier League football, I sure am ready.

Premier League Predictions- Week Eleven

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Each week, I will now post my predictions for the weekend, and see if i can get more right than BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson.

This week, for the 26/27 February, the predictions below stand.

		This week's predictions Score Lawro Edward Aston Villa v Blackburn 4-1 2-0 4-1 Everton v Sunderland 2-0 2-1 2-0 Man City v Fulham 1-1 2-0 3-0 Newcastle v Bolton 1-1 2-1 2-1 Stoke v West Brom x-x 1-0 2-0 West Ham v Liverpool 3-1 1-1 1-2 Wigan v Man Utd 0-4 0-2 0-3 Wolves v Blackpool 4-0 3-1 1-1

I expect the big winners this weekend to be Manchester United. An away tie with Wigan after their goal-less draw with Marseille midweek could be good preparation for Tuesday's tie with Chelsea.

United's form against Wigan has been excellent, with United beating the Latics 2-0 earlier in the season and scoring 5 in both games against the side last season.

In fact, United have won their last twelve against Wigan, who have only hit four goals in those games.

It will be crucial that they take any chances that they might create on the re-laid DW pitch, something which was necessary after the game against Blackburn.



James McCarthy scored twice as Wigan beat Blackburn in their last home game, but the Champions could go four points clear with a win.

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The key men for Unites, as usual, will be the forwards, with Dimitar Berbatov looking to score his first goal for a month for the side.

Berbatov was influential in helping United secure a victory at Blackpool one month yesterday, but his lack of goals have paved the way for Nani and Wayne Rooney to start hitting the target; something they both did as United won the Manchester derby 2-1.

Rooney and Nani have clicked into gear at the right time as Sir Alex Ferguson looks to seal a record breaking 19th league title.

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The other big winners this weekend could be Aston Villa.

It's not often I select Aston Villa as the team to watch but games against Blackburn are usually entertaining affairs.

Villa have knocked Rovers out of both the FA Cup and the League Cup for two successive seasons, but the North West outfit have won the last three in the league, conceding only one goal.

Rovers away form has hit a sticky patch with the 4-3 loss to Wigan last weekend and they will be hoping to come away from the Midlands with something, but you wonder when Darren Bent, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young will ifnally click up front and put someone to the sword.








Agbonlahor scored the last time Villa beat Rovers in the league.




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Young scored twice in the Carling Cup against Blackburn and Villa's home record against Blackburn is generally good, having won four of their last six meetings ahead of today's tie, which could see Houllier's side rise above Blackburn in the table, and away from the relegation zone, something they are currently three points clear of.



Blackburn have ambitions of their own and Roque Santa Cruz (left) will be looking to score his first goal for the side since he re-joined them on loan from City.





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Quite possibly the biggest game of the weekend comes between Wolves, bottom of the league, and Blackpool, buoyed by their morale boosting win over Tottenham.

Wolves are in danger of being cast adrift at the bottom and a win today wouldn't guarantee them a place out of the relegation zone.

Since the turn of the year, they have only beaten Chelsea and Manchester United in the league and games against those around you count double come May.



Maybe Jamie O'Hara, who scored last weekend against West Brom, can change their fortunes as he nearly managed with Portsmouth last season, but the team will have to pull through together.

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Their hopes will be boosted by the fact Charlie Adam starts a two game ban for ten yellow cards, but the last time he missed a game through suspension, Blackpool beat Sunderland 2-0 away.

Despite this, the Tangerines have just beaten Spurs and that is no mean feat, and possibly two more top flight wins might be enough to secure what was an unlikely top flight survival.



The key man today could again be DJ Campbell, who netted midweek, and now has nine league goals for Blackpool this term, but any points would certainly help Blackpool's cause as we head into the business part of the season.

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It'll be a good battle between two of the games more entertaining managers.

Good luck to everyone's teams this weekend.

Can Crawley Do It?

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The FA Cup 5th Round has again brought together two teams from opposite spectrums of English football.

Saturday evening sees Crawley Town, of the Blue Square Premier, take on Manchester United, currently sitting four points clear at the top of the Barclays Premier League.

It only happens in the FA Cup, yet, while Leyton Orient also face Arsenal in another potential giant-killing, the magic of the FA Cup could be about to strike again.











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It's the fairytale behind the non league side Crawley that takes priority for the TV fixtures, with the last non league side to reach the Fifth Round being Kidderminster Harriers.

For Manchester United, it is another one of those potentially tricky games which they are going to have to negotiate as they look to add to their 11 FA Cups to date.

United's recent record against the so called minnows has been good, with Sir Alex Ferguson's side beating Southampton 2-1 in the last round despite going behind.

The game against Crawley could have been a lot trickier for the current league leaders, had it been away, although the minnows' away record has been good of late, keeping a clean sheet in their last six games and winning three.



Crawley beat Torquay away in the last round, thanks to a first half goal from top scorer Matthew Tubbs.


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In fact, they've only lost two away games this season, against AFC Wimbledon and Dartford but Old Trafford is, on every scale, a whole different challenge.

Compare that to the fact that United haven't lost at home yet, and have only lost once in the league all season, and the nature of the task looks far beyond them.

However, the FA Cup is magic and they simply have to believe that they have a chance, especially if the big guns are rested heading into next weekend's double header against Wigan and Chelsea.

The conference side currently sit second in the league, three points behind AFC Wimbledon, but having played four games fewer, and are looking good for promotion, but can they do the unthinkable and beat United at their own home?

I highly doubt that they will although it would be good for football if a European giant could be knocked out of a cup competition by a lower league team, with less reputation than Coventry, Leeds and Portsmouth, the latter having knocked United out of the FA Cup over the last two seasons and all three defeats being inflicted at the Theatre of Dreams.



Leeds United beat the Red Devils in last season's FA Cup, the second consecutive year they've lost 1-0 at Old Trafford to exit the competition.

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The Crawley players have come in for some criticism for taking a tour of Old Trafford yesterday, but it's not than possibly a once in a lifetime trip for their players, so I don't blame them one bit.

It's sure to be a game where the neutrals are supporting the under-dog but there are some big guns left in the competition and I don't think that Manchester United are about to come undone this weekend as they search for another prestigious treble.

Can Crawley beat United? Who will win the FA Cup? Please discuss below.

Premier League Predictions- Week Ten

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Each week, I will now post my predictions for the weekend, and see if i can get more right than BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson.

This week, for the 12-14 February, the predictions below stand.

This week's predictions	Score	Lawro	Edward
Man Utd v Man City	2-1	1-1	2-0
Arsenal v Wolves	2-0	2-0	5-0
Birmingham v Stoke	1-0	1-1	2-1
Blackburn v Newcastle	0-0	1-2	2-1
Blackpool v Aston Villa	1-1	1-2	1-1
Liverpool v Wigan	1-1	2-0	2-0
West Brom v West Ham	3-3	2-1	1-3
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-2	0-2	1-2
Bolton v Everton	2-0	1-1	2-1
Fulham v Chelsea	0-0	1-1	1-4

I expect the big winners this weekend to be Arsenal. A home tie against Wolves has come at a great time for the Gunners. who closed the gap on leaders Man Utd by a point last weekend, despite a stunning 4-4 draw at Newcastle. Now only four points behind, Arsene Wenger's side could have one eye on the home Champions League tie with Arsenal on Wednesday but a morale boosting result wouldn't go amiss four days previous.

Marouane Chamakh scored both goals as Arsenal won 2-0 against Wolves in November, but has gone off the boil since.

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Robin van Persie is in particularly good form, having scored eight goals in his last six games, whilst Theo Walcott has been in impressive form alongside Cesc Fabregas.

The only concern for Arsenal is that they are missing the suspended Abou Diaby, so Denilson may come in, but Arsenal will have enough quality to win on Saturday and win comfortably.

Wolves are not to be underestimated having beaten Man Utd last weekend, but an away day at the Emirates could be another kettle of fish, given they lost against the three other teams who currently occupy the top four places.

With games against West Brom and Blackpool on the horizon, maybe Mick McCarthy might find it sensible to priorities his games in order to keep the Midlanders from going down.

Wolves were the first team this season to beat Manchester United, when they defeated the Red Devils 2-1 last weekend.


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The other big winners this weekend could be West Ham, who travel to West Brom, who won't be under the guidance of Roy Hodgson.

West Brom's home form has generally been OK, winning three of their last six, but their yo-yo Premier League form seems to be again playing on their minds after an incredible slip from their fourth placed position in early November.

When Odemwingie has scored this season, West Brom have never lost.

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I've said before that their main problem is that they concede too many goals and fail to score enough, something which showed in their 3-0 loss to Manchester City last weekend.

It's obvious that they need to pick up points from games like this but West Ham have something to play for too.

The Hammers will, no doubt, be spurred on by the fact they have been given the chance to play at the Olympic Stadium and that alone could be the necessary boost that the players and the club needs to ignite their season.

Add to that the fact that Avram Grant's side could jump out of the bottom three with three points at the Hawthorns and the script is written for an away win.

Each of the strikers, Obinna, Piquionne, Keane, Cole and Sears have all been on fire of late and Grant has good selection problems, something West Brom are struggling for up front, with only Peter Odemwingie having scored more than four goals this season.

Victor Obinna has scored five goals in his last three appearances.

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The big game of the weekend seems to obviously be the Manchester derby at Saturday lunchtime.

Manchester United v Manchester City always gives that added spark and with Carlos Tevez back in the goals last weekend, Manchester United, without Rio Ferdinand, might have a huge task on their hands.

That said, United lost against against Wolves last night and they can't afford another slip up, with Arsenal only four points behind.

United have, indeed, won three of their last four City derbies at Old Trafford and I expect them to do the same once more, if they can keep City out.

Michael Owen scored a controversial injury time winner as United beat City 4-3 in the league at Old Trafford last season.

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Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov are in great form up front and Ryan Giggs seems to play well whenever he is picked, and their experience might see them through on Saturday.

City have got used to playing their 4-5-1 system away from home because they don't concede many goals but they might have to keep their neighbours out if they are to take anything from the weekend.

It will give us a good preview of how City might do this season and if they can manage to scrap three points, they will definitely be on for a Champions League trip next season, with Spurs slowly catching up, and Harry Redknapp's side having a game in hand, away at Blackpool, inbetween their Champions League ties against AC Milan.

Good luck to everyone's teams this weekend.

Want to play along? Please discuss your predictions below.