Waiting for the hammer to fall

We're heading into the final weekend of the season and it couldn't be tighter at the bottom.

West Ham United, managerless for the moment after parting company with Avram Grant, have already been relegated to the doom and gloom of the Championship after a six year stay in the top flight of English football but we couldn't have expected a last day where no less than FIVE teams could join them in the second tier of English football.



This time the last day relegation scenario doesn't involve Newcastle, a day which saw Alan Shearer's side relegated two seasons ago.

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Instead, it's between Wigan, Blackpool, Birmingham, Wolves and Blackburn Rovers on the last day to determine who will be travelling to the likes of Hull, Southampton and Brighton next season in the Championship.

It could be argued that, with another point on the board, both Wolves and Blackburn (40pts) will both end Sunday's face off having avoided relegation, but a defeat for either side could see them looming close to the dreaded trap door. A victor in that game would be guaranteed another season in the top flight.

The real business, instead, comes between the other three teams, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan, who are all on 39 points, with only a tally of two separating them on goal difference.

That means that ahead of games to Tottenham, Manchester United and Stoke respectively, a point could be enough to save one side's heads.

The reality is that, if one of those three teams wins, either Wolves or Blackburn will be overtaken no matter of the result at Molineux on Sunday.

However, three draws in games involving Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would see no chance in the table as it stands, with Wigan dropping out in 19th and Blackpool in 18th, one goal behind Birmingham.

That, in itself, would be dependent on Wolves not being beaten by two clear goals at home to Blackburn. A 2-0 home defeat for Wolves, and draws at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and the Britannia Stadium would see Blackpool escape the drop zone on goals scored, with the same goal difference as Mick McCarthy's side. A remarkable defeat would be the only way Blackburn would be relegated if the sides below them and Wolves can only draw. A 7 goal swing would be needed.

Then, we come down to the scenario that Wigan have to better both Birmingham and Blackpool's results to save themselves.

It's interesting that all three sides on 39 points are away on the last day and the goal difference scenario is one you can't take your eyes off.

Wigan currently sit bottom of the goal difference chart on -22 goals, while Blackpool are one better off and Birmingham are one more better off than the Seasiders'.

The strange fact is that Wigan, questionably, have the game where if they are to lose, it's going to be a respectable defeat, whereas Blackpool and Birmingham could face thrashings at the Champions, even if a second string is deployed by Sir Alex, and Spurs, who need a win to seal their league position of 5th after beating Liverpool 2-0.

So who will stay up and why?



TOTTENHAM v BIRMINGHAM CITY

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Just looking at Birmingham's record against Spurs would give their fans resounding hope, in the first of three games live on Sky.

A 1-1 draw earlier in the season, after a Craig Gardner goal, came before their form dipped after their Carling Cup Final win over Arsenal.

I watched the game at home to Fulham on Sunday along with the West Ham game at Wigan and couldn't believe that the Blues' defense just fell apart, given their generally good defensive record. Ok, they were missing the suspended Liam Ridgewell but it could have easily been worse than 2-0 had it not been for Ben Foster (how many times have we said that this season?)

Despite accumulating draws over the years against Spurs, their only Premier League win at White Hart Lane came on 2nd December 2007, when Seb Larsson scored a last minute winner to secure a 3-2 win.

More of the same will be needed on Sunday and I'm sure that Alex McLeish will send his side out fighting from the off, something they haven't done of late, and their fate is in their hands, at the moment.



Birmingham will have to take advantage of any mistakes from Tottenham if they are to have any chance of getting the result they will need.

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On the contrary, Spurs have to win to secure 5th place ahead of Liverpool and van der Vaart's goal at weekend tends to make you think that he's back on form behind Jermaine Defoe, who has been hit and miss all season.

But after 4 draws in their last 5 home league games, Harry will be looking for his side to finish all guns blazing and I would bank on there to be goals for Spurs, if they can take advantage of the width they have used all season. A 3-0 defeat will make it especially nervy for Birmingham, and they might need to score to stand a chance of survival. The pressure might well drift through, especially if results are going against them.

There certainly aren't many goals in the Midlands' side, but they'll do especially well to keep Tottenham out at home in front of their own fans for the last time this season.

It will depend on other results.





MANCHESTER UNITED v BLACKPOOL

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That brings Blackpool into play with,arguably, the trickiest game of all, away at the Champions, who will be picking up the Premier League trophy on the day, in a game which is live on Sky.

This could go two ways; United could play a Reserve team with next weekend's Champions League Final against Barcelona in mind, or they could play some of the first eleven, given the trophy celebrations afterwards.

I expect that van der Sar will be returning in goal for his last game at Old Trafford and a defensive featuring Rafael, Smalling, Evans and Evra could be a tricky one to breach for a Blackpool side who are definitely capable of goals.

I could see the likes of Giggs, Park, Hernandez and Rooney all being rested, but every United team has goals in it and Sir Alex would never dis-respect other teams around the relegation zone on the last day by playing a team that wasn't built to win.



Blackpool gave United a real scare at Bloomfield Road and will looking to spoil the day the Reds' party day.

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Blackpool, in themselves, deserve the right to have a chance of avoiding the drop on the last day.

Victories against the likes of Spurs and Wigan (4-0) and Liverpool (2-1) should not be forgotten and they have gone to the likes of the Stadium of Light and won by taking their chances.

It would be some story if they could go to Old Trafford, the games which supporters were eagerly anticipating when the fixture list came out, and win to secure their Premier League status, something which would be a credit to the players, the fans and Ian Holloway for their belief.

In a different way to Birmingham, I do believe that Blackpool have to go for it at Old Trafford and they have to take their chances, as they did against Bolton at the weekend.

It might be a case of 'can we score more than you?' but the Oranges' boss will take it hands down.



The message from Blackpool fans is clear, but they have their own challenge at Old Trafford.

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They've got nothing to lose Blackpool, who have come a long way from their 4-0 win at Wigan on the opening day, despite patchy form in the middle period of the season and it would be in the interest of the top flight that they stay in the top tier and keep the likes of Charlie Adam.

United might have one eye on the final and one single goal in a 2-1 defeat will see them leapfrog Birmingham. A 1 goal swing would also be enough, given Blackpool's superior scoring tally.





STOKE v WIGAN

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That boils down to Wigan, who, if Blackpool lose by only one goal, would have to pick up points at Stoke, live on Sky.

A 2 goal defeat for Blackpool at United and a 1 goal defeat for Wigan at Stoke would also see Wigan down on goals scored, with Blackpool having scored 14 more than the Lancashire outfit.

Stoke's home record is generally good and, after the disappointment of the final, the players will hope to end a good season on a high, with a top 8 finish not out of the question.



Manuel Figueroa scored a memorable goal at Stoke last season and a 2-1 lead heading into the last 15 minutes could be priceless this time.

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It would be a suitable position for the excellent football Stoke have played under Tony Pulis this season.

Despite this, Wigan have only lost once to Stoke in the last nine meetings, a 2-0 defeat at the Britannia in 08/09. Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie scored that day, but the last three have ended as score draws, something which may be enough for Wigan.

They needed a miraculous comeback at home to West Ham on Sunday to stay in the league although they can expect Stoke's defense and goalkeeper to be more solid this time around.

As Roberto Martinez said, it's certainly the second of two cup finals for the Pie eaters, who, judging by predictions, will need a result to stay in the league.

It's time to see what Wigan are made of, but they can't remain a one man team forever and you'd imagine someone will finally move for Charles N'Zogbia in the summer, no matter of Wigan's league situation.



Can N'Zogbia save Wigan and can their fans bare to watch?

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It was his two goals who kept Wigan in it on Sunday and the likes of Hugo Rodalega, who has only scored once in his last eleven games for Wigan, will have to perform.

If they can go to Stoke and get under their collar, they might be able to nick the decisive early goal that could see them stay up.

On the contrary, West Ham had so many wasted chances, at times cutting through the Wigan defense and, if this happens again on Sunday, then the likes of Kenwyne Jones and Jonathan Walters will take their chances, as they have done all season.

No doubt Wigan will be working on set pieces ahead of the game after awful defending from set pieces against West Ham and playing even one aerially poor defender could cost them the point that they need at a stadium where the Stoke fans would really get behind their team.

Because of that, I could see Stoke scoring a few, and Wigan could be on the wrong end of a 3-2 loss, one that would send them down, but this is the game that could stop heartbeats of fans at both Birmingham and Blackpool throughout the day.

Interestingly, Wigan are offering supporters into the DW stadium for free to watch the game after they pre-ordered too few away tickets for the last game.

Three defeats would mean that Blackburn and Wolves would both be safe but most people will go into that game not knowing what to expect from either side.

It's been a long time since Wolves won three on the bounce and Blackburn themselves are three games unbeaten, so you'd predict that this would be a draw, ensuring that only a win from Wigan, Blackpool or Birmingham would send Wolves down. It could cue a mass pitch invasion in the Black Country but they've worked hard to be in this position and a 1-1 draw will see them safe.

Get set for a huge weekend in Premier League football, I sure am ready.

Derby Draw Day

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It's been some time when I recall all four of Sunday's Premier League games ending in draws.

No doubt Match of the Day 2 will reveal how long it's been tonight, but I don't have 60 hours to check the records and see when, or if, it has happened.

I have to admit, I've watched all three televised games today and I was disappointed with the football on show, aside from the Merseyside derby.

Usually with derby football, there are tackles flying in left, right and centre but, aside from Rafael, it wasn't anywhere near as heated as I expected.

The first televised game was at St Andrews where one of the more predictable draws was played out between two sides who can't keep clean sheets or score goals.

It was good to see David Bentley return to the first team to make his debut for the Blues, and I was impressed with his temperament and crossing ability, which he has showed throughout his career.

Perhaps Birmingham could have counted themselves unlucky to have come away with only a point, given the chances they missed, notably from Matt Derbyshire, who I like as a player.

The Birmingham derby never really got going between two teams struggling for form.

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At the other end, it was James Collins who hit the target for Gerard Houllier's side, which sums up their problems, given that the front pairing of John Carew and Gabriel Agbonlahor only have 3 goals between them this season.

If you don't score goals, you will struggle to stay up and something has to change for these teams, although I think Birmingham, as Blackburn did a few years ago, will benefit hugely from Bentley's deliveries, and that will be a huge boost for them heading into the second half of the season.

Admittedly, I haven't yet seen the Tyne Tees dervy but I've had a read online and read the BBC Live text and it sounded like another drab game, with the highlight being the Sunderland mascot chasing a Magpie, the nickname of Newcastle, around the Stadium of Light and failing to get rid of it.

Something to watch tonight again on Match of the Day, no doubt.

A beach ball went un-noticed last year at the Stadium at Light when Sunderland scored, but a magpie was not welcome today in the North East in the intense derby atmosphere.

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Aside from that, another good result for Newcastle under Pardew. He might have taken some criticism with taking over after Hughton under the circumstances but it seems he's settled well and kept the dressing room and Kevin Nolan, who scored his fourth goal against Sunderland this season, happy.

It was good to see Asamoah Gyan get back on the score sheet from a neutral point of view and Steve Bruce will again be delighted that his side found confidence to rally and claim a draw.

Two derby defeats against your bitterest rivals in one season, no matter of league positions, would be demoralising and worrying, for any Premier League manager, given the current sacking rates.

Still, the point looks good for both teams who have no need for looking over their shoulder in what promises to be a good season in Tyneside.

The best game of the day, rather predictably, was the Merseyside derby, with Liverpool and Everton playing out the day's entertaining game at Anfield, with a 2-2 draw.

Interestingly, Steven Pienaar wasn't included prior to his ominous move, but Kenny Dalglish's first point as Liverpool manager round two couldn't have come in better circumstances, with his side 2-1 down just after half time, despite leading through a Raul Meireles effort early on.

Sylvain Distin scored his first league goal for Everton since March 2007 earlier today.

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On the other side, Everton manager David Moyes must be delighted that his team are unbeaten against their rivals this season, and the Scotsman must hope that there are better things on the horizon for a team who have only won twice in their last 12 league games.

Jermaine Beckford might have finally found his feet in the Premier League and it shows some good signs that Moyes was prepared to let Yakubu out on loan to Leicester for the remainder of the season, another sure confidence boost after his goal made it 2-1 today.

It will be interesting to see how Liverpool respond from their first point in four league games, ahead of their games against Wolves and Fulham, with Dalglish still searching for a first win. Surely that will come but Liverpool played better football today, even without their captain, than they have been doing of late, despite conceding two goals.

Maybe times are changing at the club but it's already a season which should be written off by all involved with the club.

The last game, and perhaps the most anticipated, was Manchester United travelling to Spurs.

I would mention anything, but I really can't and, aside from Rafael van der Vaart and Gareth Bale, there was precious little good about the game, which ended 0-0.





Willem Korsten scored twice when Spurs last beat Man United over ten years ago.





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United remain unbeaten this season and return to the top of the table with games in hand, after City beat Wolves 4-3 in a cracker at Eastlands yesterday.

Spurs, on the other hand, move down to fifth after Chelsea's victory over Blackburn who can hopefully complete a better Super Sunday next week when they face West Brom at Ewood Park in the only game.

New Year Predictions- Premier League Relegation

The next post for the New Year Predictions features who I think will get relegated from the Premier League come May.

The last post featured who I think will win the Premier League and this time, I take a look at the opposite end of England's top flight.



Hull and Portsmouth joined Burnley in being relegated last season, but who will go this time?



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This year's surprise, rather than Portsmouth going into administration has been the form of Blackpool under Ian Holloway.

The Seasiders are bracing themselves after a dizzying run sees them lie 13th in the Premier League, in their first stint.

It couldn't have gone much better for the North West club, who have won 7 of their 19 games, including beating Liverpool and Stoke away.

Blackpool's 4-3-3 formation has ensured they've scored plenty of goals and done better than anyone could have dreamt.

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They've left themselves in a good position, on 25 points, but only 4 clear of the relegation zone and the side will have to continue where they started, and ensure they don't follow Burnley in capitulating in the second half of their debut season.

I think their attacking style has been a reflection on the Premier League this season, teams are not scared of attacking 'better' teams, and they're getting the rewards, as Sunderland did at Chelsea.

With the way the Premier League season is going at the moment, I fully expect Blackpool to stay up, but they can't take their foot off the gas.

Ian Holloway has been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League.

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The other team who, in my eyes, are in danger of immediately going down after being promoted are West Brom.

I received a lot of stick for saying that the Baggies would go down before their loss to Blackburn but now, finally, people are starting to see sense.

Six straight losses in the league and Roberto Di Matteo's side are only one point outside of the drop zone.

It's another worrying time for the Midlands side, who seem to be the 'yo-yo' team of the century, but there is no doubt they can, at times, play good football.

That said, their squad is nothing on the team that came up last time round and my main concern is that they concede too many goals.

Sometimes that can be countered with scoring lots, but they don't do that neither, having only scored more than once on six occasions in the league this season.



Graeme Dorrans scored 18 goals but has yet to hit the target this season and has summed up West Brom's problems in front of goal.

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Part of the problem is their lack of a recognised striker, with Peter Odemwingie out of form and Simon Cox or Marc-Antoine Fortune not being able to get a game.

It's been the case for some time that the Baggies have played 5 across the midfield, but if they're going to avoid the drop, they are going to have to start contributing in the goal scoring tally.

Add to that their ill-discipline at the moment, having amassed 6 red cards in their last 14 games in all competition and you'll struggle to get any points with ten men every week.




Red cards have become common place of late for the Baggies and they need to stamp out the bad tackling.



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If West Brom are to survive after their superb start, they simply have to start taking their chances and sure themselves up at the back with a few January additions, but I'm not holding my breath and it may be bad news at the Hawthorns again.

Away from the promotion candidates, West Ham have had a shocking season but I may produce a shock of my own.

I think the Hammers have enough to stay up and I don't think it will be as stone-cast as some pundits have suggested, they may be clear by some distance.

The good thing about West Ham is that they have managed to keep their steadying influence of Rob Green, Matthew Upson, Scott Parker and Carlton Cole.

Each season, albeit in doses, they all step up and perform but at times this season, carrying the team has been Scott Parker's burden.

He's been helped by the signing of Frederic Piquionne, who I think is technically a fantastic player, as he proved at Portsmouth.



Carlton Cole scored a double against Fulham a few weeks ago, something he had never done in a West Ham shirt in the league.

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The difference between West Ham and the rest has been that Avram Grant has a side who can score goals and are covered on most positions.

That said, their defence is an issue still and perhaps the Israeli manager might be best advised bringing someone in at centre back over the next three weeks.

Conceding five at Newcastle midweek wasn't going to help anyone, but in a relegation god fight, these things happen, and the important thing is how the team reacts.



Scott Parker has become more adept in his ball distribution over the last few seasons.

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West Ham have been in enough scraps over the last few season to get themselves out of this and maybe next season might be a step up the ladder, something the fans have been waiting for since Carlos Tevez saved them in 2006/07. They might be ok, and I think they'll have enough grit.

Completing the W's would be Wigan and Wolves, but we'll start with the North West outfit and Wigan.

Roberto Martinez's side continue to be inconsistent and it's proved to be their downfall yet again.



Martinez has looked as puzzled as anyone as to why Wigan's inconsistent form has continued.



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Despite drawing against Arsenal and Liverpool and beating Tottenham away, the Latics have proceeded to lose against the likes of Fulham and Blackpool. and currently sit in 19th position, having scored only 23 goals, the worst in the league.

Wigan need to turn some of their draws into wins and, if that was the case, they wouldn't be in this predicament year upon year.

It seems inevitable that they will slip up one year after avoiding the drop last season by six points, but it's sure to be closer this time around, with Wigan's defence also looking vulnerable.

Like West Brom, if they can counter their lack of goals by signing someone, they might have enough to scrap to safety but neither Franco Di Santo or Mauro Boselli have proved themselves to be a worthy partner to Hugo Rodallega up front.




Hugo Rodallega has been a huge hit at the JJB stadium and has scored five league goals this term.







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It's huge for Wigan that Charles N'Zogbia doesn't leave because he is their best player and makes things happen. If he leaves, I doubt they'll even go down fighting and I'm not sure how chairman Dave Whelan will react if things aren't going their way at the end of March.

The last of the dreaded w's are Wolves, who sit in 17th place, with only goal difference separating them from Aston Villa in the bottom three.

The real problem for Mick McCarthy's men is that they either win, or they lose, they tend not to draw and over half of their league games this season have ended with no points gained.

Their away form is for particular concern, with only one win in ten, against Liverpool, in contrast to their 5 home victories.

The key player in their revival has to be Kevin Doyle, who has 4 goals for Wolves this season and leads the line, on his own on occasions, superbly.

Their away form reminds me of Fulham's, with the Cottagers having only won once in 2009 in the league away from Craven Cottage and their relegation scrap could shadow Fulham's from the 08/09 season when they stayed up by a minimal margin.

It might be more clear cut for Wolves to go down this season after they lost to Wigan twice, and their record against the other relegation-threatened teams must improve rapidly, otherwise they could be cut adrift.

It's strange with Wolves, because they have quality and they can prove it, as they did when they beat Manchester City and Chelsea at Molineux.



Mick McCarthy's been trying hard to keep his cool this season but it may be a tough ask to steer Wolves to safety again.

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If Mick McCarthy's side are to stay up, they must start scoring goals, and their season tally of 21 is only worsened by Birmingham, but the Midlands side must also add to their 3 clean sheets.

One man who is key to that would be Wayne Hennessey, who has recently replaced Marcus Hahnemann in goal for the side.





The ball hasn't been falling for Wolves and they haven't scored enough goals.







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The Welsh international will be hoping to inspire his team to another season in the Premier League, but they may be caught adrift after their next league games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Bolton, Manchester United and Arsenal.

I think it may be a case of too little too late and I could see them being bottom by some distance.

Next comes Fulham, who seem a different side after their 3-0 victory over West Brom a fortnight ago.

It's always crucial that the team scores goals and Mark Hughes seems to have found that, without Bobby Zamora or Andy Johnson, after the Cottagers hit 6 in the FA Cup against Peterborough United.





Mark Hughes won't intend on looking down the table this season.





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They have the players to keep them away from the drop zone and Hughes is an experienced campaigner who has battled relegation before at Blackburn. His experience and professionalism will come in useful, but Fulham should have enough confidence and quality to get themselves way clear.

Regardless, they need to start picking up points away from home, and beating Stoke thanks to two Chris Baird goals was fantastic.

It was interested to hear Hughes was under so much pressure at the start of the season, but it seems he's settled in well and it will be interesting to see who he adds to his squad which has an impressive, experienced midfield.



Brede Hangeland has been a rock in Fulham's defence but Arsenal are supposedly interested in signing the 29 year old.


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Surely a goalkeeper would be an urgent signing with Mark Schwarzer likely to move elsewhere, but Fulham keep enough clean sheets, seven in the league this season, for them to have less worries than the other candidates this season, although they won't have a Europa League final to look forward to.

The other team I consider will be scrapping down there will be Birmingham, presuming Blackburn and Aston Villa sort themselves out.

Alex McLeish's mean have just lost in their League Cup semi final first leg and didn't look convincing against West Ham, playing yet another 4-5-1 formation.

As I've already said, the Blues are the lowest scorers in the league, despite having Nicola Zigic and Matt Derbyshire on the bench for most games.



Alex McLeish will be trying to mastermind a plan to keep his side in the top flight.

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Maybe over the coming months we will see the side try out a 4-4-2 formation and they won't be helped should Seb Larsson move to Newcastle as is speculated.

They can't afford to waste their time bidding for the likes of Robbie Keane and David Bentley, neither of whom I expect will sign at St Andrews, and instead maybe the hierarchy should be looking at keeping their experienced players, the likes of Bowyer and Ferguson, fit.

They will be important players come May and whilst the squad does need adding to, I like the way the whole team pitches in with goals.



Ben Foster has filled Joe Hart's boots well at Birmingham, but still has the odd mistake in him, as he proved in their 2-1 defeat to West Ham.

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The defence is particularly important and has looked solid, with Liam Ridgewell and Scott Dann impressing on their way to six clean sheets.

Their home form is as important as anyone else's, but if they could turn their draws, 10 so far, into victories, they wouldn't even have to worry about relegation.

Maybe it's time for a little more adventure from another Midlands outfit who might just scrape their way out of the reckoning come the end of the season.

Prediction:
18th - Wigan Athletic
19th - West Brom
20th - Wolves

Who do you think will go down? Why will they go down? Please discuss below. Don't miss the relegation poll on the right of this page.