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Sunday 2 January 2011

New Year Predictions- Premier League Champions?

For the first post of 2011, I've decided to give my predictions for a series of events which will be analysed over the next few days.






Where better to start than with the Premier League title race, which couldn't be closer, with only 6 points separating the top five sides and Manchester City really giving indications that they are ready for the fight.

United are still unbeaten half way into their season and have at least one game in hand, away at Blackpool, on each of their challengers.


If Sir Alex Ferguson's side are to get their 19th top flight league success, 11 having already come in the Premier League, it seems vital that Dimitar Berbatov and Wayne Rooney keep fit and share the goals, something which hasn't happened this season.

Both have only netted in the same game in the league once, while United will be looking to sure up a defence which has conceded 18 times, despite keeping 7 clean sheets.





Rio Ferdinand has missed six Premier League games this season and will have to stay away from injury to help United pick up vital clean sheets.




Credit; here



One team who have had no such problems at the back are Manchester City, who seem to have cover on every level for every position.

The signings of Jerome Boateng and Yaya Toure have given more stability to a side which was fragile, at times, last season, but has stacked up 9 clean sheets and only conceded 14 goals.

Adding to that, City have been effective going forward with Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli scoring 12 and 5 times in the league respectively.




James Milner has yet to score for City since his move from Aston Villa.

Credit; here





City's problem is that they can't finish teams off and perhaps if they can share the goals around more often and keep their best players fit, then they will become realistic title challengers.

I think this season they might just find one or two too many, although they are on course for a destined Champions League place.



You would have imagined at the start of the season that Chelsea would have been the ones to beat.

Instead, the Champions sit in fifth place,six points off the pace after only one win in their last 8 league fixtures. Seven points from that time simply isn't good enough and is more like relegation form, given defeats to Birmingham, Sunderland and Arsenal.

It's not the Chelsea we know and love to watch, instead they are shipping goals faster than the Titanic sunk and the likes of Nicolas Anelka have yet to make their mark after an encouraging start.



Frank Lampard has mainly watched from the sidelines as Chelsea lost four times before his return, in another defeat, to Arsenal.

Credit; here




Didier Drogba, the Premier League's top scorer, might be finding his feet now after a barren run but his presence alone usually wins games for Carlo Ancelotti, something which hasn't been happening of late.

Maybe the answer lies with the return of Lampard, with Manchester United still to face the Champions twice, but it's crucial that their defence is improved, with right back remaining their problem position.

It will be interesting to see who is bought because someone is sure to come in, but 6 points is a lot to make up at this stage and it's going to be a tough ask with the Champions League a sure distraction.



One team who arguably has a more intense distraction in the same competition is Arsenal who have two appetising dates with their conquerors from last season, Barcelona, in the next two months.

Last season, the Spanish side masterminded a 6-3 aggregate win which finished Arsenal's season, with an injury to Cesc Fabregas affecting the Gunners' league form.

It was interesting to see Arsene Wenger and Robin van Persie come out and say that they wanted Barca in the last 16, but self-confidence can be a harmful thing after five seasons with no silverware.

That might be changed this year, with the North Londoners looking to seal a spot in the Carling Cup final in their up-coming games with Ipswich Town.

Regardless, Arsene Wenger distinctly believes that Arsenal have the squad to win the Premier League.

There is no doubt that there is individual talent, with Fabregas, Nasri, Arshavin and Walcott all capable of fantastic things, but their defence is a liability and they seem to be lacking a natural born leader who can pick the team up if they aren't playing well.

Until they find that person, in the model of Patrick Vieira or Tony Adams, the youngsters will never achieve their potential over such a long season.

I would be wrong to write them off but unless they can strengthen a defence which has conceded 11 times at home, twice more than Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham, I can't see this trophy heading back to the Emirates in May.




Sebastian Squilacci and Laurent Koscielny haven't stepped up to the enormous gap left by centre back Thomas Vermaelen.

Credit; here



It's about time they spent some money to keep up with the other big boys, but should they lose in the Champions League, they will have time to cement another attemot next season.



The other contenders for the Champions League spot, or more fourth place, are Tottenham Hotspur.

The majority of people think that Roberto Mancini's City will have too much for them over the course of the next five months, but that might be down to whether they can keep Rafael van der Vaart, Luka Modric and Gareth Bale fit.

The influential Dutch play-maker has already missed one month of the season with a hamstring injury and the side suffered. A repeat performance would surely end any season ambitions at a crucial stage of the season.




David Beckham will probably be joining Tottenham on loan in January and his experience will help, but his talent might be better used on the training ground, given Spurs good midfield selection.





Credit; here




Another thing that Spurs are short of is a decent striker.

If you look at the other title challengers, they all have a recognised striker who is near guaranteed to score 20 goals a season. Those goals can make all the difference when you have a choice of Roman Pavlyuchenko, Jermain Defoe or Peter Crouch to lead the line, neither of which seem much fancied by Harry Redknapp.

It's been a huge relief that Michael Dawson has returned just now, with other injuries at centre half and their experience of challenging for 4th will do them good and there's a good chance they'll at least repeat that, but I can see them missing out, perhaps because of their Champions League run.


Prediction: Manchester United, with Wayne Rooney still to fire on all cylinders, might be able to make the most of their game in hand and step up to their usual standard for the second half of the season.

I expect Chelsea to improve considerably with Lampard having returned and it will still be a battle between City and Spurs for 4th. It might even be settled by goal difference.

1st - Manchester United
2nd - Chelsea
3rd - Arsenal
4th - Manchester City
5th - Tottenham Hotspur

What do you think? Can City challenge for the league? Will Spurs reach the Champions League again? Can United go unbeaten all season? Post your predictions below.

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