New Year Predictions- Premier League Relegation

The next post for the New Year Predictions features who I think will get relegated from the Premier League come May.

The last post featured who I think will win the Premier League and this time, I take a look at the opposite end of England's top flight.



Hull and Portsmouth joined Burnley in being relegated last season, but who will go this time?



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This year's surprise, rather than Portsmouth going into administration has been the form of Blackpool under Ian Holloway.

The Seasiders are bracing themselves after a dizzying run sees them lie 13th in the Premier League, in their first stint.

It couldn't have gone much better for the North West club, who have won 7 of their 19 games, including beating Liverpool and Stoke away.

Blackpool's 4-3-3 formation has ensured they've scored plenty of goals and done better than anyone could have dreamt.

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They've left themselves in a good position, on 25 points, but only 4 clear of the relegation zone and the side will have to continue where they started, and ensure they don't follow Burnley in capitulating in the second half of their debut season.

I think their attacking style has been a reflection on the Premier League this season, teams are not scared of attacking 'better' teams, and they're getting the rewards, as Sunderland did at Chelsea.

With the way the Premier League season is going at the moment, I fully expect Blackpool to stay up, but they can't take their foot off the gas.

Ian Holloway has been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League.

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The other team who, in my eyes, are in danger of immediately going down after being promoted are West Brom.

I received a lot of stick for saying that the Baggies would go down before their loss to Blackburn but now, finally, people are starting to see sense.

Six straight losses in the league and Roberto Di Matteo's side are only one point outside of the drop zone.

It's another worrying time for the Midlands side, who seem to be the 'yo-yo' team of the century, but there is no doubt they can, at times, play good football.

That said, their squad is nothing on the team that came up last time round and my main concern is that they concede too many goals.

Sometimes that can be countered with scoring lots, but they don't do that neither, having only scored more than once on six occasions in the league this season.



Graeme Dorrans scored 18 goals but has yet to hit the target this season and has summed up West Brom's problems in front of goal.

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Part of the problem is their lack of a recognised striker, with Peter Odemwingie out of form and Simon Cox or Marc-Antoine Fortune not being able to get a game.

It's been the case for some time that the Baggies have played 5 across the midfield, but if they're going to avoid the drop, they are going to have to start contributing in the goal scoring tally.

Add to that their ill-discipline at the moment, having amassed 6 red cards in their last 14 games in all competition and you'll struggle to get any points with ten men every week.




Red cards have become common place of late for the Baggies and they need to stamp out the bad tackling.



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If West Brom are to survive after their superb start, they simply have to start taking their chances and sure themselves up at the back with a few January additions, but I'm not holding my breath and it may be bad news at the Hawthorns again.

Away from the promotion candidates, West Ham have had a shocking season but I may produce a shock of my own.

I think the Hammers have enough to stay up and I don't think it will be as stone-cast as some pundits have suggested, they may be clear by some distance.

The good thing about West Ham is that they have managed to keep their steadying influence of Rob Green, Matthew Upson, Scott Parker and Carlton Cole.

Each season, albeit in doses, they all step up and perform but at times this season, carrying the team has been Scott Parker's burden.

He's been helped by the signing of Frederic Piquionne, who I think is technically a fantastic player, as he proved at Portsmouth.



Carlton Cole scored a double against Fulham a few weeks ago, something he had never done in a West Ham shirt in the league.

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The difference between West Ham and the rest has been that Avram Grant has a side who can score goals and are covered on most positions.

That said, their defence is an issue still and perhaps the Israeli manager might be best advised bringing someone in at centre back over the next three weeks.

Conceding five at Newcastle midweek wasn't going to help anyone, but in a relegation god fight, these things happen, and the important thing is how the team reacts.



Scott Parker has become more adept in his ball distribution over the last few seasons.

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West Ham have been in enough scraps over the last few season to get themselves out of this and maybe next season might be a step up the ladder, something the fans have been waiting for since Carlos Tevez saved them in 2006/07. They might be ok, and I think they'll have enough grit.

Completing the W's would be Wigan and Wolves, but we'll start with the North West outfit and Wigan.

Roberto Martinez's side continue to be inconsistent and it's proved to be their downfall yet again.



Martinez has looked as puzzled as anyone as to why Wigan's inconsistent form has continued.



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Despite drawing against Arsenal and Liverpool and beating Tottenham away, the Latics have proceeded to lose against the likes of Fulham and Blackpool. and currently sit in 19th position, having scored only 23 goals, the worst in the league.

Wigan need to turn some of their draws into wins and, if that was the case, they wouldn't be in this predicament year upon year.

It seems inevitable that they will slip up one year after avoiding the drop last season by six points, but it's sure to be closer this time around, with Wigan's defence also looking vulnerable.

Like West Brom, if they can counter their lack of goals by signing someone, they might have enough to scrap to safety but neither Franco Di Santo or Mauro Boselli have proved themselves to be a worthy partner to Hugo Rodallega up front.




Hugo Rodallega has been a huge hit at the JJB stadium and has scored five league goals this term.







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It's huge for Wigan that Charles N'Zogbia doesn't leave because he is their best player and makes things happen. If he leaves, I doubt they'll even go down fighting and I'm not sure how chairman Dave Whelan will react if things aren't going their way at the end of March.

The last of the dreaded w's are Wolves, who sit in 17th place, with only goal difference separating them from Aston Villa in the bottom three.

The real problem for Mick McCarthy's men is that they either win, or they lose, they tend not to draw and over half of their league games this season have ended with no points gained.

Their away form is for particular concern, with only one win in ten, against Liverpool, in contrast to their 5 home victories.

The key player in their revival has to be Kevin Doyle, who has 4 goals for Wolves this season and leads the line, on his own on occasions, superbly.

Their away form reminds me of Fulham's, with the Cottagers having only won once in 2009 in the league away from Craven Cottage and their relegation scrap could shadow Fulham's from the 08/09 season when they stayed up by a minimal margin.

It might be more clear cut for Wolves to go down this season after they lost to Wigan twice, and their record against the other relegation-threatened teams must improve rapidly, otherwise they could be cut adrift.

It's strange with Wolves, because they have quality and they can prove it, as they did when they beat Manchester City and Chelsea at Molineux.



Mick McCarthy's been trying hard to keep his cool this season but it may be a tough ask to steer Wolves to safety again.

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If Mick McCarthy's side are to stay up, they must start scoring goals, and their season tally of 21 is only worsened by Birmingham, but the Midlands side must also add to their 3 clean sheets.

One man who is key to that would be Wayne Hennessey, who has recently replaced Marcus Hahnemann in goal for the side.





The ball hasn't been falling for Wolves and they haven't scored enough goals.







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The Welsh international will be hoping to inspire his team to another season in the Premier League, but they may be caught adrift after their next league games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Bolton, Manchester United and Arsenal.

I think it may be a case of too little too late and I could see them being bottom by some distance.

Next comes Fulham, who seem a different side after their 3-0 victory over West Brom a fortnight ago.

It's always crucial that the team scores goals and Mark Hughes seems to have found that, without Bobby Zamora or Andy Johnson, after the Cottagers hit 6 in the FA Cup against Peterborough United.





Mark Hughes won't intend on looking down the table this season.





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They have the players to keep them away from the drop zone and Hughes is an experienced campaigner who has battled relegation before at Blackburn. His experience and professionalism will come in useful, but Fulham should have enough confidence and quality to get themselves way clear.

Regardless, they need to start picking up points away from home, and beating Stoke thanks to two Chris Baird goals was fantastic.

It was interested to hear Hughes was under so much pressure at the start of the season, but it seems he's settled in well and it will be interesting to see who he adds to his squad which has an impressive, experienced midfield.



Brede Hangeland has been a rock in Fulham's defence but Arsenal are supposedly interested in signing the 29 year old.


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Surely a goalkeeper would be an urgent signing with Mark Schwarzer likely to move elsewhere, but Fulham keep enough clean sheets, seven in the league this season, for them to have less worries than the other candidates this season, although they won't have a Europa League final to look forward to.

The other team I consider will be scrapping down there will be Birmingham, presuming Blackburn and Aston Villa sort themselves out.

Alex McLeish's mean have just lost in their League Cup semi final first leg and didn't look convincing against West Ham, playing yet another 4-5-1 formation.

As I've already said, the Blues are the lowest scorers in the league, despite having Nicola Zigic and Matt Derbyshire on the bench for most games.



Alex McLeish will be trying to mastermind a plan to keep his side in the top flight.

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Maybe over the coming months we will see the side try out a 4-4-2 formation and they won't be helped should Seb Larsson move to Newcastle as is speculated.

They can't afford to waste their time bidding for the likes of Robbie Keane and David Bentley, neither of whom I expect will sign at St Andrews, and instead maybe the hierarchy should be looking at keeping their experienced players, the likes of Bowyer and Ferguson, fit.

They will be important players come May and whilst the squad does need adding to, I like the way the whole team pitches in with goals.



Ben Foster has filled Joe Hart's boots well at Birmingham, but still has the odd mistake in him, as he proved in their 2-1 defeat to West Ham.

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The defence is particularly important and has looked solid, with Liam Ridgewell and Scott Dann impressing on their way to six clean sheets.

Their home form is as important as anyone else's, but if they could turn their draws, 10 so far, into victories, they wouldn't even have to worry about relegation.

Maybe it's time for a little more adventure from another Midlands outfit who might just scrape their way out of the reckoning come the end of the season.

Prediction:
18th - Wigan Athletic
19th - West Brom
20th - Wolves

Who do you think will go down? Why will they go down? Please discuss below. Don't miss the relegation poll on the right of this page.