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Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts

Monday, 10 January 2011

New Year Predictions- Premier League Relegation

The next post for the New Year Predictions features who I think will get relegated from the Premier League come May.

The last post featured who I think will win the Premier League and this time, I take a look at the opposite end of England's top flight.



Hull and Portsmouth joined Burnley in being relegated last season, but who will go this time?



Credit; here



This year's surprise, rather than Portsmouth going into administration has been the form of Blackpool under Ian Holloway.

The Seasiders are bracing themselves after a dizzying run sees them lie 13th in the Premier League, in their first stint.

It couldn't have gone much better for the North West club, who have won 7 of their 19 games, including beating Liverpool and Stoke away.





Blackpool's 4-3-3 formation has ensured they've scored plenty of goals and done better than anyone could have dreamt.






Credit: here



They've left themselves in a good position, on 25 points, but only 4 clear of the relegation zone and the side will have to continue where they started, and ensure they don't follow Burnley in capitulating in the second half of their debut season.

I think their attacking style has been a reflection on the Premier League this season, teams are not scared of attacking 'better' teams, and they're getting the rewards, as Sunderland did at Chelsea.

With the way the Premier League season is going at the moment, I fully expect Blackpool to stay up, but they can't take their foot off the gas.





Ian Holloway has been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League.






Credit; here




The other team who, in my eyes, are in danger of immediately going down after being promoted are West Brom.

I received a lot of stick for saying that the Baggies would go down before their loss to Blackburn but now, finally, people are starting to see sense.

Six straight losses in the league and Roberto Di Matteo's side are only one point outside of the drop zone.

It's another worrying time for the Midlands side, who seem to be the 'yo-yo' team of the century, but there is no doubt they can, at times, play good football.

That said, their squad is nothing on the team that came up last time round and my main concern is that they concede too many goals.

Sometimes that can be countered with scoring lots, but they don't do that neither, having only scored more than once on six occasions in the league this season.



Graeme Dorrans scored 18 goals but has yet to hit the target this season and has summed up West Brom's problems in front of goal.

Credit; here


Part of the problem is their lack of a recognised striker, with Peter Odemwingie out of form and Simon Cox or Marc-Antoine Fortune not being able to get a game.

It's been the case for some time that the Baggies have played 5 across the midfield, but if they're going to avoid the drop, they are going to have to start contributing in the goal scoring tally.

Add to that their ill-discipline at the moment, having amassed 6 red cards in their last 14 games in all competition and you'll struggle to get any points with ten men every week.




Red cards have become common place of late for the Baggies and they need to stamp out the bad tackling.



Credit; here


If West Brom are to survive after their superb start, they simply have to start taking their chances and sure themselves up at the back with a few January additions, but I'm not holding my breath and it may be bad news at the Hawthorns again.

Away from the promotion candidates, West Ham have had a shocking season but I may produce a shock of my own.

I think the Hammers have enough to stay up and I don't think it will be as stone-cast as some pundits have suggested, they may be clear by some distance.

The good thing about West Ham is that they have managed to keep their steadying influence of Rob Green, Matthew Upson, Scott Parker and Carlton Cole.

Each season, albeit in doses, they all step up and perform but at times this season, carrying the team has been Scott Parker's burden.

He's been helped by the signing of Frederic Piquionne, who I think is technically a fantastic player, as he proved at Portsmouth.



Carlton Cole scored a double against Fulham a few weeks ago, something he had never done in a West Ham shirt in the league.

Credit; here


The difference between West Ham and the rest has been that Avram Grant has a side who can score goals and are covered on most positions.

That said, their defence is an issue still and perhaps the Israeli manager might be best advised bringing someone in at centre back over the next three weeks.

Conceding five at Newcastle midweek wasn't going to help anyone, but in a relegation god fight, these things happen, and the important thing is how the team reacts.



Scott Parker has become more adept in his ball distribution over the last few seasons.



Credit; here



West Ham have been in enough scraps over the last few season to get themselves out of this and maybe next season might be a step up the ladder, something the fans have been waiting for since Carlos Tevez saved them in 2006/07. They might be ok, and I think they'll have enough grit.

Completing the W's would be Wigan and Wolves, but we'll start with the North West outfit and Wigan.

Roberto Martinez's side continue to be inconsistent and it's proved to be their downfall yet again.



Martinez has looked as puzzled as anyone as to why Wigan's inconsistent form has continued.



Credit; here



Despite drawing against Arsenal and Liverpool and beating Tottenham away, the Latics have proceeded to lose against the likes of Fulham and Blackpool. and currently sit in 19th position, having scored only 23 goals, the worst in the league.

Wigan need to turn some of their draws into wins and, if that was the case, they wouldn't be in this predicament year upon year.

It seems inevitable that they will slip up one year after avoiding the drop last season by six points, but it's sure to be closer this time around, with Wigan's defence also looking vulnerable.

Like West Brom, if they can counter their lack of goals by signing someone, they might have enough to scrap to safety but neither Franco Di Santo or Mauro Boselli have proved themselves to be a worthy partner to Hugo Rodallega up front.




Hugo Rodallega has been a huge hit at the JJB stadium and has scored five league goals this term.







Credit; here


It's huge for Wigan that Charles N'Zogbia doesn't leave because he is their best player and makes things happen. If he leaves, I doubt they'll even go down fighting and I'm not sure how chairman Dave Whelan will react if things aren't going their way at the end of March.


The last of the dreaded w's are Wolves, who sit in 17th place, with only goal difference separating them from Aston Villa in the bottom three.

The real problem for Mick McCarthy's men is that they either win, or they lose, they tend not to draw and over half of their league games this season have ended with no points gained.

Their away form is for particular concern, with only one win in ten, against Liverpool, in contrast to their 5 home victories.

The key player in their revival has to be Kevin Doyle, who has 4 goals for Wolves this season and leads the line, on his own on occasions, superbly.

Their away form reminds me of Fulham's, with the Cottagers having only won once in 2009 in the league away from Craven Cottage and their relegation scrap could shadow Fulham's from the 08/09 season when they stayed up by a minimal margin.

It might be more clear cut for Wolves to go down this season after they lost to Wigan twice, and their record against the other relegation-threatened teams must improve rapidly, otherwise they could be cut adrift.

It's strange with Wolves, because they have quality and they can prove it, as they did when they beat Manchester City and Chelsea at Molineux.



Mick McCarthy's been trying hard to keep his cool this season but it may be a tough ask to steer Wolves to safety again.

Credit; here


If Mick McCarthy's side are to stay up, they must start scoring goals, and their season tally of 21 is only worsened by Birmingham, but the Midlands side must also add to their 3 clean sheets.

One man who is key to that would be Wayne Hennessey, who has recently replaced Marcus Hahnemann in goal for the side.





The ball hasn't been falling for Wolves and they haven't scored enough goals.







Credit; here

The Welsh international will be hoping to inspire his team to another season in the Premier League, but they may be caught adrift after their next league games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Bolton, Manchester United and Arsenal.

I think it may be a case of too little too late and I could see them being bottom by some distance.

Next comes Fulham, who seem a different side after their 3-0 victory over West Brom a fortnight ago.

It's always crucial that the team scores goals and Mark Hughes seems to have found that, without Bobby Zamora or Andy Johnson, after the Cottagers hit 6 in the FA Cup against Peterborough United.





Mark Hughes won't intend on looking down the table this season.





Credit; here



They have the players to keep them away from the drop zone and Hughes is an experienced campaigner who has battled relegation before at Blackburn. His experience and professionalism will come in useful, but Fulham should have enough confidence and quality to get themselves way clear.

Regardless, they need to start picking up points away from home, and beating Stoke thanks to two Chris Baird goals was fantastic.

It was interested to hear Hughes was under so much pressure at the start of the season, but it seems he's settled in well and it will be interesting to see who he adds to his squad which has an impressive, experienced midfield.



Brede Hangeland has been a rock in Fulham's defence but Arsenal are supposedly interested in signing the 29 year old.


Credit; here

Surely a goalkeeper would be an urgent signing with Mark Schwarzer likely to move elsewhere, but Fulham keep enough clean sheets, seven in the league this season, for them to have less worries than the other candidates this season, although they won't have a Europa League final to look forward to.

The other team I consider will be scrapping down there will be Birmingham, presuming Blackburn and Aston Villa sort themselves out.

Alex McLeish's mean have just lost in their League Cup semi final first leg and didn't look convincing against West Ham, playing yet another 4-5-1 formation.

As I've already said, the Blues are the lowest scorers in the league, despite having Nicola Zigic and Matt Derbyshire on the bench for most games.



Alex McLeish will be trying to mastermind a plan to keep his side in the top flight.

Credit: here



Maybe over the coming months we will see the side try out a 4-4-2 formation and they won't be helped should Seb Larsson move to Newcastle as is speculated.

They can't afford to waste their time bidding for the likes of Robbie Keane and David Bentley, neither of whom I expect will sign at St Andrews, and instead maybe the hierarchy should be looking at keeping their experienced players, the likes of Bowyer and Ferguson, fit.

They will be important players come May and whilst the squad does need adding to, I like the way the whole team pitches in with goals.



Ben Foster has filled Joe Hart's boots well at Birmingham, but still has the odd mistake in him, as he proved in their 2-1 defeat to West Ham.

Credit; here

The defence is particularly important and has looked solid, with Liam Ridgewell and Scott Dann impressing on their way to six clean sheets.

Their home form is as important as anyone else's, but if they could turn their draws, 10 so far, into victories, they wouldn't even have to worry about relegation.

Maybe it's time for a little more adventure from another Midlands outfit who might just scrape their way out of the reckoning come the end of the season.

Prediction:
18th - Wigan Athletic
19th - West Brom
20th - Wolves

Who do you think will go down? Why will they go down? Please discuss below. Don't miss the relegation poll on the right of this page.

Sunday, 2 January 2011

New Year Predictions- Premier League Champions?

For the first post of 2011, I've decided to give my predictions for a series of events which will be analysed over the next few days.






Where better to start than with the Premier League title race, which couldn't be closer, with only 6 points separating the top five sides and Manchester City really giving indications that they are ready for the fight.

United are still unbeaten half way into their season and have at least one game in hand, away at Blackpool, on each of their challengers.


If Sir Alex Ferguson's side are to get their 19th top flight league success, 11 having already come in the Premier League, it seems vital that Dimitar Berbatov and Wayne Rooney keep fit and share the goals, something which hasn't happened this season.

Both have only netted in the same game in the league once, while United will be looking to sure up a defence which has conceded 18 times, despite keeping 7 clean sheets.





Rio Ferdinand has missed six Premier League games this season and will have to stay away from injury to help United pick up vital clean sheets.




Credit; here



One team who have had no such problems at the back are Manchester City, who seem to have cover on every level for every position.

The signings of Jerome Boateng and Yaya Toure have given more stability to a side which was fragile, at times, last season, but has stacked up 9 clean sheets and only conceded 14 goals.

Adding to that, City have been effective going forward with Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli scoring 12 and 5 times in the league respectively.




James Milner has yet to score for City since his move from Aston Villa.

Credit; here





City's problem is that they can't finish teams off and perhaps if they can share the goals around more often and keep their best players fit, then they will become realistic title challengers.

I think this season they might just find one or two too many, although they are on course for a destined Champions League place.



You would have imagined at the start of the season that Chelsea would have been the ones to beat.

Instead, the Champions sit in fifth place,six points off the pace after only one win in their last 8 league fixtures. Seven points from that time simply isn't good enough and is more like relegation form, given defeats to Birmingham, Sunderland and Arsenal.

It's not the Chelsea we know and love to watch, instead they are shipping goals faster than the Titanic sunk and the likes of Nicolas Anelka have yet to make their mark after an encouraging start.



Frank Lampard has mainly watched from the sidelines as Chelsea lost four times before his return, in another defeat, to Arsenal.

Credit; here




Didier Drogba, the Premier League's top scorer, might be finding his feet now after a barren run but his presence alone usually wins games for Carlo Ancelotti, something which hasn't been happening of late.

Maybe the answer lies with the return of Lampard, with Manchester United still to face the Champions twice, but it's crucial that their defence is improved, with right back remaining their problem position.

It will be interesting to see who is bought because someone is sure to come in, but 6 points is a lot to make up at this stage and it's going to be a tough ask with the Champions League a sure distraction.



One team who arguably has a more intense distraction in the same competition is Arsenal who have two appetising dates with their conquerors from last season, Barcelona, in the next two months.

Last season, the Spanish side masterminded a 6-3 aggregate win which finished Arsenal's season, with an injury to Cesc Fabregas affecting the Gunners' league form.

It was interesting to see Arsene Wenger and Robin van Persie come out and say that they wanted Barca in the last 16, but self-confidence can be a harmful thing after five seasons with no silverware.

That might be changed this year, with the North Londoners looking to seal a spot in the Carling Cup final in their up-coming games with Ipswich Town.

Regardless, Arsene Wenger distinctly believes that Arsenal have the squad to win the Premier League.

There is no doubt that there is individual talent, with Fabregas, Nasri, Arshavin and Walcott all capable of fantastic things, but their defence is a liability and they seem to be lacking a natural born leader who can pick the team up if they aren't playing well.

Until they find that person, in the model of Patrick Vieira or Tony Adams, the youngsters will never achieve their potential over such a long season.

I would be wrong to write them off but unless they can strengthen a defence which has conceded 11 times at home, twice more than Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham, I can't see this trophy heading back to the Emirates in May.




Sebastian Squilacci and Laurent Koscielny haven't stepped up to the enormous gap left by centre back Thomas Vermaelen.

Credit; here



It's about time they spent some money to keep up with the other big boys, but should they lose in the Champions League, they will have time to cement another attemot next season.



The other contenders for the Champions League spot, or more fourth place, are Tottenham Hotspur.

The majority of people think that Roberto Mancini's City will have too much for them over the course of the next five months, but that might be down to whether they can keep Rafael van der Vaart, Luka Modric and Gareth Bale fit.

The influential Dutch play-maker has already missed one month of the season with a hamstring injury and the side suffered. A repeat performance would surely end any season ambitions at a crucial stage of the season.




David Beckham will probably be joining Tottenham on loan in January and his experience will help, but his talent might be better used on the training ground, given Spurs good midfield selection.





Credit; here




Another thing that Spurs are short of is a decent striker.

If you look at the other title challengers, they all have a recognised striker who is near guaranteed to score 20 goals a season. Those goals can make all the difference when you have a choice of Roman Pavlyuchenko, Jermain Defoe or Peter Crouch to lead the line, neither of which seem much fancied by Harry Redknapp.

It's been a huge relief that Michael Dawson has returned just now, with other injuries at centre half and their experience of challenging for 4th will do them good and there's a good chance they'll at least repeat that, but I can see them missing out, perhaps because of their Champions League run.


Prediction: Manchester United, with Wayne Rooney still to fire on all cylinders, might be able to make the most of their game in hand and step up to their usual standard for the second half of the season.

I expect Chelsea to improve considerably with Lampard having returned and it will still be a battle between City and Spurs for 4th. It might even be settled by goal difference.

1st - Manchester United
2nd - Chelsea
3rd - Arsenal
4th - Manchester City
5th - Tottenham Hotspur

What do you think? Can City challenge for the league? Will Spurs reach the Champions League again? Can United go unbeaten all season? Post your predictions below.